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		<title>Ernie Varitimos: Founder of Apple Investor &#8216;The Only Competitor to Apple Over the Next Decade is Apple&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/ernie-varitimos/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:00:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple Investor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ernie Varitimos]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=648</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When it comes to Apple and its reach, it&#8217;s hard to find consumers nowadays who don&#8217;t touch Apple&#8217;s products one way or the other.  Apple offers innovative products in multiple arenas, and the consumers love it.  Many of you reading this article are likely fans of Apple products. Well, Ernie Varitimos is no exception.  In [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">When it comes to Apple and its reach, it&#8217;s hard to find consumers nowadays who don&#8217;t touch Apple&#8217;s products one way or the other.  Apple offers innovative products in multiple arenas, and the consumers love it.  Many of you reading this article are likely fans of Apple products.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, Ernie Varitimos is no exception.  In fact, Ernie is so fanatical about Apple and its products that he devotes much of his effort reading and writing about Apple.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a target="_blank" href="http://apple-investor.com/wlm/" ><img class="alignnone" title="Interview Ernie Varitimos Apple Investor" src="http://www.behindthespread.com/images/interview-ernie-varitimos2.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="186" /></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ernie, a technical consultant and a fan of Apple for over 30 years, now manages a financial blog dedicated to Apple.  Through his blog <a href="http://apple-investor.com/wlm/" title="Apple Investor"  target="_blank">Apple Investor</a> and <a target="_blank" href="http://seekingalpha.com/author/apple-investor" title="Seeking Alpha Apple Investor" >Seeking Alpha</a> contribution, Ernie delivers his views and thoughts on anything Apple along with technical analysis for Apple investors.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In our interview, I got to learn about the drivers behind his passion for Apple and why he sees Apple as a viable investment platform for the next 30 years.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“So Ernie, what led you to specialize in Apple (AAPL) and follow its movements so passionately?”</strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple resonates with me; I’ve been an Apple fan for over 30 years, having owned nearly 80 Macs in my lifetime. I bought my first Mac the day after it was introduced to the world with the famous 1984 Orwellian Super Bowl ad. I already knew that Apple had great products, but from that point on I knew Apple would be the disruptive leader in personal computing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Today we have eight Macs in our house.<span> </span>There’s one in almost every room. Oh, and we all have iPhones. What attracts me to Apple and its products is its pursuit of excellence; Apple makes insanely great products, both aesthetically and functionally. Apple products are works of art that perform and make people more productive. The Apple philosophy resonates with me as well. It’s a company that knows and caters to its customers.<span> </span>Apple knows who we are and what we need, usually before we know we need it.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“Can you share more about your career? What’s your educational background?”</strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past 30 years, I’ve worked primarily as a consultant and technologist in a wide range of industries such as finance, insurance, healthcare, publishing, manufacturing, defense, energy and sales. I’ve been a consultant for at least 25 of those years providing strategic guidance for companies ranging in size from startups to fortune 5’s. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past 15 years I’ve consulted for and built systems for many of the recognizable names in finance like Fidelity, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, TD Water House, GE Capital, etc. Also, for a time I was a chief architect of the northeastern United States for Sun Microsystems. I led a large team of architects and projects, most of which were in NYC, where all the big financial houses were located. This is where I developed my fascination for finance and stocks. </span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“So how did you get into the field of consulting in the first place?”<span> </span></strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">It’s funny you should ask because the Macintosh had a great deal to do with it. My first job out of school was with Raytheon, working on defense projects like guidance systems for missiles. After a few years I got bored with that job, but not with technology.<span> </span>I didn’t know what I wanted to do. So I decided to consult and try a number of different things to expand my horizons. So I picked up some books on being an independent consultant and started shopping for contracts. That’s just about the time the Macintosh was introduced.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">When I got hold of the Mac, I found for the first time I could create proposals with graphics all on the same system. Sounds pedestrian now, but it was a competitive edge back then. A few years later, desktop publishing was born, and I recognized the huge opportunities for consulting in the field of electronic publishing.<span> </span>So I started consulting with large printers, input/output service bureaus, advertising agencies and communications departments of larger companies. That’s when I recognized that certain companies were well positioned in print and media, and so I started to buy stocks in Apple, Adobe, Compugraphic and others. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">As the Internet evolved, so did online trading. I was captivated with that, and saw how important technology was becoming to finance companies.<span> </span>Therefore, I searched them out for consulting gigs. I started with Standard &amp; Poors, then Scudder Stevens and Clark, then Fidelity. Over time, I developed a reputation, and was asked to be chief architect for Sun Microsystems professional services in the northeast. There I had the opportunity to lead a large team of architects working primarily in NYC with some of the biggest finance companies in the world, building trading systems and portfolio management apps. I worked directly with fund managers, analysts and traders. I learned their craft through the course of my project work, and have been developing my knowledge of financial systems, stock analysis, and trading ever since.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“Do you trade stocks other than AAPL?<span> </span>If so, what other companies do you look at?<span> </span>Lastly, what type of trading strategies do you employ?”</strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple (AAPL) gets most of my attention, naturally. But I am constantly scanning for good companies with stocks that have favorable setups. I also trade ETFs and Options that follow the major indexes. I pay particular attention to companies that are part of, or influencers of the Apple ecosphere.<span> </span>They include: Research in Motion (RIMM), Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), and Adobe (ADBE). I besides that, I keep a close eye on sectors that are lighting up, and so I’ll look at the leaders of that sector, scoping out objective setups.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">You can best characterize me as a Swing Trader, although I’ll occasionally Day Trade and scalp. My underlying trading philosophy is very conservative. I like to repeat the mantra, “Capital Preservation First, Maximum Profits Second.” And so most of the time I maintain a large cash position, unless the risk:reward is so skewed in my favor that it makes sense to put that dry powder to work.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The strategy I use is Technical Analysis.<span> </span>I rarely resort to fundamental analysis unless scanning for stocks within a particularly hot market or sector.<span> </span>In these cases, I’ll employ a quantitative analysis to pare down the panoply of stocks and perform fundamentals analysis to pick the leaders, the cream of the crop. I then follow up with Technical Analysis to determine which stocks are setting up into a tradable pattern.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“As you know, Apple has made significant strides in innovation this past decade, and it is benefiting from it.<span> </span>However, Apple is not the only company with creativity and capability.<span> </span>Who do you see as the rightful contenders of Apple in the coming decade, and how are you strategizing appropriately?”</strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">It’s true that Apple competes on several fronts with other great companies.<span> </span>However, Apple is really alone in one crucial and important aspect, and that’s a devoted, fanatical following. I can’t think of a single company that Apple competes with that has a customer base so dedicated. How often do you hear of a Mac user switching to Windows? Never. On the other hand, switchers, or first time buyers of Macs, make up 50% of the customers at Apple stores.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">I guess one could make the argument that RIM is a primary competitor to Apple with smart phones, and RIM has a very dedicated following. Isn’t that why people refer to it as the Crackberry? But RIM is mostly a one trick pony.<span> </span>RIM does smart phones and sells them mainly into the enterprise. Apple is so much more. Apple is, or is becoming, a consumer products company with a much wider range of products, and therefore has more stability and growth potential.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">When it comes to computers, there are lots of companies out there that go head to head with Apple. But most of them, Like HP, Dell, Lenovo, and others, are becoming nothing more than pushers of commodity hardware. Sure, they try to differentiate themselves from one another, usually by copying Apple designs.<span> </span>However, they rarely compete head-to-head with Apple in specific niches. For example, Apple owns the high-end laptop market with a 90% market share, it owns the MP3 players market with a 75% market share, and it owns the desktop computer market over $1200 with an 80% market share. And of course, Apple owns the high-end smart phone market in terms of revenue, after only 2 years in the business. Also, let’s not forget that its margins are the envy of the industry, allowing them to accumulate nearly $35 billion in cash.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The only competitor to Apple over the next decade is Apple. Should it lose sight of the consumer, lose the ability to innovate, or focus too much on expanding market share rather than simply producing great products, there’s a chance that Apple will be its own undoing. From my vantage point, Apple has not yet come close to reaching its potential. So long as Apple stays true to its values and keep its focus on the customer, not the corporate buyer, it’ll be a great company to trade and invest in for the next 30 years.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;"><strong>“I definitely see your passion for Apple, and we can see it reflected on your blog <em>Apple Investor</em> as well.<span> </span>Speaking of which, what are your goals for the blog, and what can we look forward to going forward?”</strong></span></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple Investor is transitioning to a membership site focused on the needs of investors that trade/invest in Apple (AAPL). It’s a focused niche, but it has all the elements to support a successful venture. There are huge numbers of investors that are passionate about Apple stock, and they’re as passionate about the stock as others are passionate about Apple products. They all require information and knowledge that are specific to the industry and markets that affect their favorite stock, and I intend to deliver that to them. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The site will offer commentary through the blog, daily market alerts, online tools and resources, and educational videos on technical analysis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past two years, I have worked very hard in my spare time to develop a brand: The Apple Investor. That has been realized through social media, such as blogs, iTunes and Twitter, in which I have nearly 50,000 followers. My next big social media push will be video with YouTube and UStream. Over the past few months I’ve been working with several joint venture partners towards a late January launch.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Thanks Ernie for sharing your passion.  For those of you who are or are considering investing in Apple, make a visit to Ernie&#8217;s site.  It&#8217;s worth a visit.</p>
<p></span></p>
<blockquote>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">lize in Apple (AAPL) and follow its movements so passionately?”</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple resonates with me; I’ve been an Apple fan for over 30 years, having owned nearly 80 Macs in my lifetime. I bought my first Mac the day after it was introduced to the world with the famous 1984 Orwellian Super Bowl ad. <span> </span>I already knew that Apple had great products, but from that point on I knew Apple would be the disruptive leader in personal computing.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Today we have eight Macs in our house.<span> </span>There’s one in almost every room. <span> </span>Oh, and we all have iPhones. <span> </span>What attracts me to Apple and its products is its pursuit of excellence; Apple makes insanely great products, both aesthetically and functionally. <span> </span>Apple products are works of art that perform and make people more productive. <span> </span>The Apple philosophy resonates with me as well. <span> </span>It’s a company that knows and caters to its customers.<span> </span><span> </span>Apple knows who we are and what we need, usually before we know we need it.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">“Can you share more about your career? What’s your educational background?”</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past 30 years, I’ve worked primarily as a consultant and technologist in a wide range of industries such as finance, insurance, healthcare, publishing, manufacturing, defense, energy and sales. <span> </span>I’ve been a consultant for at least 25 of those years providing strategic guidance for companies ranging in size from startups to fortune 5’s. </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past 15 years I’ve consulted for and built systems for many of the recognizable names in finance like Fidelity, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, TD Water House, GE Capital, etc. Also, for a time I was a chief architect of the northeastern United States for Sun Microsystems. I led a large team of architects and projects, most of which were in NYC, where all the big financial houses were located. This is where I developed my fascination for finance and stocks. </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">“So how did you get into the field of consulting in the first place?”<span> </span></span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">It’s funny you should ask because the Macintosh had a great deal to do with it. <span> </span>My first job out of school was with Raytheon, working on defense projects like guidance systems for missiles. <span> </span>After a few years I got bored with that job, but not with technology.<span> </span>I didn’t know what I wanted to do. So I decided to consult and try a number of different things to expand my horizons. So I picked up some books on being an independent consultant and started shopping for contracts. That’s just about the time the Macintosh was introduced.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">When I got hold of the Mac, I found for the first time I could create proposals with graphics all on the same system. <span> </span>Sounds pedestrian now, but it was a competitive edge back then. A few years later, desktop publishing was born, and I recognized the huge opportunities for consulting in the field of electronic publishing.<span> </span>So I started consulting with large printers, input/output service bureaus, advertising agencies and communications departments of larger companies. <span> </span>That’s when I recognized that certain companies were well positioned in print and media, and so I started to buy stocks in Apple, Adobe, Compugraphic and others. </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">As the Internet evolved, so did online trading. <span> </span>I was captivated with that, and saw how important technology was becoming to finance companies.<span> </span>Therefore, I searched them out for consulting gigs. <span> </span>I started with Standard &amp; Poors, then Scudder Stevens and Clark, then Fidelity. Over time, I developed a reputation, and was asked to be chief architect for Sun Microsystems professional services in the northeast. There I had the opportunity to lead a large team of architects working primarily in NYC with some of the biggest finance companies in the world, building trading systems and portfolio management apps. I worked directly with fund managers, analysts and traders. I learned their craft through the course of my project work, and have been developing my knowledge of financial systems, stock analysis, and trading ever since.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">“Do you trade stocks other than AAPL?<span> </span>If so, what other companies do you look at?<span> </span>Lastly, what type of trading strategies do you employ?”</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple (AAPL) gets most of my attention, naturally. But I am constantly scanning for good companies with stocks that have favorable setups. <span> </span>I also trade ETFs and Options that follow the major indexes. I pay particular attention to companies that are part of, or influencers of the Apple ecosphere.<span> </span>They include: Research in Motion (RIMM), Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), and Adobe (ADBE). <span> </span>I besides that, I keep a close eye on sectors that are lighting up, and so I’ll look at the leaders of that sector, scoping out objective setups.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">You can best characterize me as a Swing Trader, although I’ll occasionally Day Trade and scalp. My underlying trading philosophy is very conservative. I like to repeat the mantra, “Capital Preservation First, Maximum Profits Second.” And so most of the time I maintain a large cash position, unless the risk:reward is so skewed in my favor that it makes sense to put that dry powder to work.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The strategy I use is Technical Analysis.<span> </span>I rarely resort to fundamental analysis unless scanning for stocks within a particularly hot market or sector.<span> </span>In these cases, I’ll employ a quantitative analysis to pare down the panoply of stocks and perform fundamentals analysis to pick the leaders, the cream of the crop. <span> </span>I then follow up with Technical Analysis to determine which stocks are setting up into a tradable pattern.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">“As you know, Apple has made significant strides in innovation this past decade, and it is benefiting from it.<span> </span>However, Apple is not the only company with creativity and capability.<span> </span>Who do you see as the rightful contenders of Apple in the coming decade, and how are you strategizing appropriately?”</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">It’s true that Apple competes on several fronts with other great companies.<span> </span>However, Apple is really alone in one crucial and important aspect, and that’s a devoted, fanatical following. I can’t think of a single company that Apple competes with that has a customer base so dedicated. <span> </span>How often do you hear of a Mac user switching to Windows? Never. <span> </span>On the other hand, switchers, or first time buyers of Macs, make up 50% of the customers at Apple stores.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">I guess one could make the argument that RIM is a primary competitor to Apple with smart phones, and RIM has a very dedicated following. Isn’t that why people refer to it as the Crackberry? But RIM is mostly a one trick pony.<span> </span>RIM does smart phones and sells them mainly into the enterprise. <span> </span>Apple is so much more. <span> </span>Apple is, or is becoming, a consumer products company with a much wider range of products, and therefore has more stability and growth potential.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">When it comes to computers, there are lots of companies out there that go head to head with Apple. But most of them, Like HP, Dell, Lenovo, and others, are becoming nothing more than pushers of commodity hardware. Sure, they try to differentiate themselves from one another, usually by copying Apple designs.<span> </span>However, they rarely compete head-to-head with Apple in specific niches. For example, Apple owns the high-end laptop market with a 90% market share, it owns the MP3 players market with a 75% market share, and it owns the desktop computer market over $1200 with an 80% market share. <span> </span>And of course, Apple owns the high-end smart phone market in terms of revenue, after only 2 years in the business. <span> </span>Also, let’s not forget that its margins are the envy of the industry, allowing them to accumulate nearly $35 billion in cash.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The only competitor to Apple over the next decade is Apple. <span> </span>Should it lose sight of the consumer, lose the ability to innovate, or focus too much on expanding market share rather than simply producing great products, there’s a chance that Apple will be its own undoing. <span> </span>From my vantage point, Apple has not yet come close to reaching its potential. <span> </span>So long as Apple stays true to its values and keep its focus on the customer, not the corporate buyer, it’ll be a great company to trade and invest in for the next 30 years.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">“I definitely see your passion for Apple, and we can see it reflected on your blog <em>Apple Investor</em> as well.<span> </span>Speaking of which, what are your goals for the blog, and what can we look forward to going forward?”</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Apple Investor is transitioning to a membership site focused on the needs of investors that trade/invest in Apple (AAPL). It’s a focused niche, but it has all the elements to support a successful venture. <span> </span>There are huge numbers of investors that are passionate about Apple stock, and they’re as passionate about the stock as others are passionate about Apple products. They all require information and knowledge that are specific to the industry and markets that affect their favorite stock, and I intend to deliver that to them. </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">The site will offer commentary through the blog, daily market alerts, online tools and resources, and educational videos on technical analysis.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;" mce_style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &amp;amp;amp;">Over the past two years, I have worked very hard in my spare time to develop a brand: The Apple Investor. <span> </span>That has been realized through social media, such as blogs, iTunes and Twitter, in which I have nearly 50,000 followers. <span> </span>My next big social media push will be video with YouTube and UStream. Over the past few months I’ve been working with several joint venture partners towards a late January launch.</span></strong></p>
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</blockquote>
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		<title>Peter Kurata: From Microsoft to Covestor, Learn About Peter&#8217;s CANSLIM System</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/peter-kurata/</link>
		<comments>http://www.behindthespread.com/peter-kurata/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 12:01:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kurata]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Peter Kurata is one of the select investors who is on Covestor Investment Management (CVIM).  Utilizing William O&#8217;Neil&#8217;s system called CANSLIM, he transformed from an engineer working at Microsoft to a full-time investor. He kindly agreed for an interview recently and has shared his knowledge on the CANSLIM system along with the valuable lessons learned [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Peter Kurata is one of the select investors who is on<a target="_blank" href="http://cv.im/models/profile/peter-kurata" > Covestor Investment Management (CVIM)</a>.  Utilizing William O&#8217;Neil&#8217;s system called CANSLIM, he transformed from an engineer working at Microsoft to a full-time investor.</p>
<p>He kindly agreed for an interview recently and has shared his knowledge on the CANSLIM system along with the valuable lessons learned through his nine years of experience.</p>
<p><strong>“So Peter, you had a career in IT/engineering working for Microsoft, and you’re now trading full-time after retirement.  What else can we know about your background?”</strong></p>
<p>At Microsoft, I worked on identifying new technologies for Windows experience, which now comes in handy for finding tech stocks. I also like to backtest and think about ways to analyze stock data. One idea I’m kicking around is an intelligent backtester, so instead of guessing which indicators to use, the backtester will make its recommendations.</p>
<p>I got into investing after retiring from Microsoft in 2001 and seeing my financial advisor lose 53% of my portfolio during the internet crash.  He sold nothing during this time. After much research, William O’Neils’s CANSLIM  made the most sense to me.  He’s a computer guy and pioneered the use of computers to analyze stocks. In fact, his research group has backtested charts dating back to the 1890’s, using US and foreign market data.  I also liked how stock selection is based on both fundamental and technical analysis, profits never fall below 7%, and CANSLIM’s very accurate market timing system.</p>
<p><strong>“You’ve been investing for quite some time. Over your investment career, you’ve seen both the bullish and the bearish times.  Can you share with us some of your most successful and unsuccessful trades you’ve had in the past?”</strong></p>
<p>Most successful is BIDU, a 97% profit in 9/07. I bought it on a cup with handle breakout and sold it at the top as it triggered one of my sell rules. Worst buy is SKF, a 33% loss, in 7/08. I locked in a 21% gain, got greedy and tried to go for more.</p>
<p><strong>“What has been the most important learning from these experiences?”</strong></p>
<p>Hard work and discipline. I like the John Wooden quote, “The harder you work, the luckier you get”. For trading, the more time is spent building a repertoire of proven stock setups, the better your chances of finding your next winner. Discipline is important to keep emotions out of trading. As much as possible, I follow a set of rules and have a plan before the market open. This was the difference between BIDU and SKF.</p>
<p>BIDU was a textbook CANSLIM trade. Buy on a cup with handle breakout, sell on my rule to hold for 8 weeks if it gained 20% in less than 3.  On the other hand, SKF was a textbook emotional trade. I was being featured in the Investor’s Business Daily newspaper and was trying to get my returns up for the article. Already up 21% on a very volatile ETF that was going parabolic, I ignored the rules and let my greedy emotion keep me in.  Sure enough, SKF gapped down more than 20% at the open, and continued to tank from there.</p>
<p><strong> “Can you tell us more on your trading strategy?  I’d love to know more about CANSLIM.”</strong></p>
<p>I like to think of my strategy as “stock whispering” and it involves getting a reading of the market trend and action of leading stocks.  Market trend is important, as most  stocks will follow this. This market status is updated daily in The Big Picture Section on investors.com or <a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/ibdinvestor" >http://twitter.com/ibdinvestor</a>. When the market is moving in the right direction, focus on the leaders. These are stocks with accelerated earning and sales, and confirming price and volume action. Getting down to the nuts and bolts of my strategy, I created over 300 rules to navigate my moves.  Each one can be traced back to studying CANSLIM seminars, books, and William O’Neil interviews.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;As you know, there are various methods to trading, and many succeed in various ways.  Do you believe in investment methods other than CANSLIM?”</strong></p>
<p>Yes, in fact, CANSLIM was derived from the work of other great investors: Jesse Livermore, Gerald Loeb, Nicolas Darvas, Stan Weinstein. I have also spent time with Gil Morales and Chris Kacher, William O’Neil superstars, and I am a subscriber to their newsletter on gilmoreport.com.  Furthermore, Fred Adrich, a childhood friend of William O’Neil, has a very good newsletter at stratinv.com.  These three guys have lifetime returns well over 1000%, and studying their newsletters will shave off years of self study.</p>
<p>Thanks for sharing your expertise on the CANSLIM system Peter.  There are many systems that investors employ for investing.  What&#8217;s important is choosing the right strategy that works for you, because what works for one may not work for the other.  On that note, CANSLIM is certainly an established system worth peaking at.
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		<title>Michael Panzner: The Author of Financial Armageddon &#8211; &#8220;The Wall Street Will Not be the Same&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/michael-panzner/</link>
		<comments>http://www.behindthespread.com/michael-panzner/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:00:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Panzner]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael J Panzner is a 25 year Wall St veteran with a resume oozing with credentials.  Having extensive experiences in global stock, bond, and the currency markets, he has worked for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase to name a few.   Furthermore, he leveraged his knowledge and published a few [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael J Panzner is a 25 year Wall St veteran with a resume oozing with credentials.  Having extensive experiences in global stock, bond, and the currency markets, he has worked for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase to name a few.   Furthermore, he leveraged his knowledge and published a few notable books: <em>Financial Armageddon, When Giants Fall, and </em><span id="btAsinTitle"><em>The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle</em>. </span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&amp;location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Fentity%2FMichael-J.-Panzner%2FB001HMOQU0%3Fie%3DUTF8%26ref_%3Dsr%255Fntt%255Fsrch%255Flnk%255F1%26qid%3D1259033553%26sr%3D8-1&amp;tag=my1000doll-20&amp;linkCode=ur2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957" >(His Books</a><img style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" src="https://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=my1000doll-20&amp;l=ur2&amp;o=1" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /> can be found here)</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/entity/Michael-J.-Panzner/B001HMOQU0?ie=UTF8&amp;ref_=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1&amp;qid=1259033553&amp;sr=8-1" ><img class="alignnone" title="Michael Panzner Books" src="http://www.behindthespread.com/images/interview-michael-panzner2.jpg" alt="" width="445" height="223" /></a></p>
<p>Now lucky for us, we get to explore his thoughts and perspectives on the market not only through his appearances on BNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, USA Today, Barron’s, Reuters, CNN, MarketWatch, BusinessWeek Online, and The Street.com, but also through his blog, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.financialarmageddon.com/" title="Financial Armageddon" >Financial Armageddon</a>, which he manages daily.  In our recent interview, Michael shared the personal aspects of his life instead of focusing on Wall Street related questions.  Learn about how he leveraged his programming skill to get into Wall Street more than 20 years ago.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.financialarmageddon.com" ><img class="alignnone" title="Financial Armageddon" src="http://www.behindthespread.com/images/interview-michael-panzner3.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="84" /></a></p>
<p><strong>“How did you get into the world of investing?  What did you study in school?  What led you to this career of yours as a writer, blogger, and a trader?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>It was actually pretty accidental.  In fact, I had a degree in English from Columbia University.  So it wasn’t that well planned coming out of college to walk into Wall Street.  However, investing was always an appeal of mine.  The whole notion of the market being a puzzle got my attention &#8212; I wanted to figure out the puzzle and put the pieces together.  It was certainly an intellectual challenge, and that drew me into it.</p>
<p>When I came out of the school thirty years ago, Wall Street had different requirements for entry. So it was more luck than skill back then to get into Wall Street with an English degree.  I actually started working in a bank first doing some programming.  So it was initially programming that opened up the doors to more opportunities.  This led me to the start of my trading career, first in foreign exchange.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“Programming.  That’s interesting!  Do you still program as a hobby?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Not really.  I was interested in it because it was logical, but I no longer have the capability that many programmers have today. Quite frankly, I wasn’t interested in it enough to pursue further.</p>
<p>Wall Street is far more intriguing &#8211; it entices me to figure out where the world is headed every day.  The challenges and the mysteries of the financial markets have attracted me for the past 25 years and will continue to do so.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So given your degree in English, it makes sense that you’re now managing a blog and writing books.  You have been able to leverage your passions together to make your career successful. “</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I never knew the connection would be there between writing and markets, at least initially.  For a long time, I didn’t do much with my writing background, but it did help me communicate.  However, it may also have helped me better organize my thoughts, ideas, and approach to looking at the world.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“You have a wide array of experiences working for different firms within Wall Street.  What were some of the experiences you enjoyed and recommend? What were some of the experiences you don’t recommend?   What were some of the most valuable experiences that helped you with your development?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>One thing I’ve learned is that humans aren’t built to be good traders.  We make mistakes, we make irrational decisions, and we naturally lack discipline.  I don’t want to discourage anyone, but I think experience plays a big role in one’s success as an investor.  According to one book I read recently, called <em>Outliers, </em>by Malcolm Gladwell, there seems to be a commonality amongt very successful individuals.  According to Gladwell, it takes an individual 10,000 hours of effort in order to master something.  When I look back at my career, I know I’ve invested over 10,000 hours of time studying the art of investing.</p>
<p>Now, what I’ve learned from this experience is that you can’t just count on one thing.  I used to think I could depend solely on technical analysis to trade successfully.  However, I’ve learned that it requires a wider perspective.  You have to be cognizant of the macro picture, the fundamentals of the companies and industries involved, and the interrelationships of the world economy.  Furthermore, technical indicators should help your guidance on entry and exit points.  Lastly, you can’t always take a logical approach to Wall Street because the market is illogical at times.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“That’s a great advice.  Thanks Michael.  Now, on a separate topic, why did you start your blog, <em>Financial Armageddon</em>?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Well, as you know, I’ve written several books in the past that detail my ideas about what’s ahead for the market.  However, I’ve realized that I can’t put all of my thoughts into a book because the dynamics are always changing.  So blogging was a good opportunity to expand on some of the concepts I discuss in my books.  Also, it gives me a chance to get the word out that there are things to be concerned about in the current environment.</p>
<p>Furthermore, blogging requires me to write about the market and my thoughts every day.  This forces me to stay on top of what’s going on around me.  I keep an eye on the derivatives market, the credit markets, politics and regulations, the economy, and the network of relationships among the global markets.   I believe many people overlook at least some of these factors every day.  So I want to increase the awareness level through my writing.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So with everything you’re doing currently, what does your typical day look like?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Well, I’m a trader on Wall Street during the day, but I keep that low key. Blogging and writing are completely separate from my trading career, so it’s almost like having a double life.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“Michael, it is clear what your stance on economic outlook is.  Now, do you have any suggestions or advice to the younger generation who may be pursuing a career in Wall Street or money management in general?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>The past few decades have been the exception when it comes to the size of the financial sector relative to the rest of the economy.  I don’t think this will be the case going forward.  I think the industry will shrink, and it will be harder to find the types of opportunities that were available before.</p>
<p>I don’t want to discourage anyone, but I think it will require more effort, passion, and determination to pursue opportunities in Wall Street in future than in the past.  However, if you approach the market with the right attitude, the opportunities can be found.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So what drives you the most about your career?  What can the aspiring investors keep in mind to stay enthusiastic?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I think Wall Street is a great place to be challenged.  Because of the dynamics, you’re constantly trying to figure things out.  There are factors that are in flux every day, and thinking about the market is exciting and stimulating.  Yes, the money has been good and it&#8217;s important, but I would probably have found my way to Wall Street regardless of how much it paid.  To me, it’s about the intellectual stimulation.  So if you’re looking for a challenging environment, this industry won’t disappoint you.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Joshua Brown: Learn What&#8217;s It Like Being a Broker During the Financial Crisis</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/joshua-brown/</link>
		<comments>http://www.behindthespread.com/joshua-brown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:41:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long-Term]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joshua Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Reformed Broker]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=142</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Joshua Brown, an  author of a financial blog The Reformed Broker, must have an enlarged right side of the brain.  From funny posts like &#8220;The E! True Hollywood Story: Rise and Fall of SKF&#8221; to his unique financial blogger high school fueled by his creative engine,  I&#8217;ve quickly grown into his writing style and contents [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joshua Brown, an  author of a financial blog <a target="_blank" href="http://thereformedbroker.com" title="Reformed Broker" >The Reformed Broker</a>, must have an enlarged right side of the brain.  From funny posts like <a target="_blank" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/08/04/the-e-true-hollywood-story-rise-and-fall-of-skf/" >&#8220;The E! True Hollywood Story: Rise and Fall of SKF&#8221;</a> to his unique <a target="_blank" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/whos-who-financial-bloggers/" >financial blogger high school</a> fueled by his creative engine,  I&#8217;ve quickly grown into his writing style and contents since my discovery.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com" ><img title="Interview Josh Brown" src="http://www.my10000dollars.com/interview-joshua-brown.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="144" /></a></p>
<p>Recently, I had the opportunity to ask him a few questions that were on my mind personally.  I especially wanted to find out what it was like being a financial broker during this financial crisis that crippled many families&#8217; lives.   As Josh puts it:</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Imagine if your job was to walk into the office each day and get bashed over the head with a pillow case stuffed with soda cans and D batteries.</span></p></blockquote>
<p>Well, I suggest you continue with the interview if you want more exposure to Josh and his right brain.  He is a great writer and has given us great insights on how to become a better investor.  Enjoy.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;You have certainly been building your track record in the financial industry for quite some time.  What has been your journey like?  What&#8217;s your background?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I&#8217;ve known that I wanted to work on Wall Street since I was 16.  For whatever reason, the town I grew up in bred a ton of brokers, traders etc. and these were the guys I wanted to be like when I finished school.  In the beginning, I took menial jobs at brokerage firms and investment banks during the summers between college just to get involved.  I&#8217;ve never done anything else.</p></blockquote>
<div><strong>&#8220;Can you tell us a bit about your experience as a broker during this financial crisis? I&#8217;m sure it wasn&#8217;t quite like the prior years.  What&#8217;s it like being a broker during this insane market?&#8221;</strong></div>
<blockquote><p>Let me see if I can give you a metaphor for being a broker during the financial crisis of 2008/2009&#8230;Imagine if your job was to walk into the office each day and get bashed over the head with a pillow case stuffed with soda cans and D batteries.  Like every hour of every day for almost two years.  Picture that and you get just a taste of what it&#8217;s been like to talk investors off the ledge on an hourly basis.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>It&#8217;s not fun to witness the collapse of hardworking people&#8217;s careers, portfolios and even lives in some cases.  That said, this is the type of environment that separates the real from the pretender.  Your best relationships with clients are not forged in bull markets, they are solidified in times like these if you are on the phone with them discussing strategy rather than throwing your hands up or hiding.  Keeping a steady hand on the wheel over the last 2 years so that people are positioned for the recovery has been the most important thing I&#8217;ve ever done in my career.</p></blockquote>
<div><strong>&#8220;For your personal accounts, what type of investments do you make lately? What&#8217;s your investment style, and has this new market changed your trading style at all?</strong></div>
<blockquote><p>I try not to do much trading in my own accounts because every idea I recommend for clients, I would also buy for myself.  The inherent problem with that is the conflicts that could come with my price on a sale being better than a customer&#8217;s.  Clearly, you can&#8217;t have that even be a possibility.  As a result, most of my own money is managed by someone else or is in index products.  My trading/ investment style and philosophy have been severely impacted by this period, and like all professional investors, I hope improved.  Anyone who invests for a living and says his style is unchanged by what&#8217;s gone on this decade is a liar or a fool.  Core principles are good, but evolution is better.</p></blockquote>
<div><strong>&#8220;For those thinking about getting into the world of investing, what would you recommend them study?  Is it Economics?  Statistics? Finance? Something else? Or Does it even matter?&#8221;</strong></div>
<blockquote><p>If you had asked me this question even five years ago, I would&#8217;ve reeled off a list of stock selection and trading tomes like Peter Lynch&#8217;s books or &#8220;Reminiscences of a Stock Operator&#8221;, the story of Jesse Livermore.  I still love the classic stock market books but I would say that having a background in Macroeconomics or at least a good understanding of the big picture is more important than ever.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>An analyst who specializes in, say, semiconductor companies or railroad stocks cannot make you money if he doesn&#8217;t also have a feel for the macro trends, which essentially dictate everything when asset classes and sectors are as correlated as they&#8217;ve been of late.  When I call in to my office to see what&#8217;s going on, I don&#8217;t ask for stock quotes, I just ask for what the Dollar is doing vs the Euro.  The answer to that will tell me exactly what my entire portfolio is doing, give or take.  Stock picking is still secondary to global trends and being on the right side of them.  I don&#8217;t see that changing anytime soon, so understanding how the puzzle looks from 35,000 feet and being able to read the tape is way more beneficial than excelling at discounted cash fow analysis, for example.</p></blockquote>
<div>
<p><strong>&#8220;You have quite an extensive list of Blogroll.  I suspect you don&#8217;t visit all of them everyday.  What are some of the main blogs you visit or people you follow?&#8221;</strong></div>
<blockquote><p>I actually rarely use the blogroll to check in with my fave sites.  I must confess that I&#8217;m a Google Reader fanatic and I can get up to date on everyone&#8217;s stuff really efficiently with it, plus keep up with non-finance related subjects of interest to me.  Many of the feeds that are tracked by my reader are history, art and science-related.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The blog that inspired me the most to put my own voice out there was Barry Ritholtz&#8217;s The Big Picture.  He&#8217;s the best in the game from every angle and stands in a class of his own.  You will learn more about economics in a month of reading his blog than in a semester of econ at most schools, at least as far as practical knowledge goes.  Recently, I&#8217;ve been obsessing over The Pragmatic Capitalist and Market Folly as well.  When I want culture with my finance, I go to Infectious Greed (Paul Kedrosky) or The Epicurean Dealmaker.  When I want to chuckle, I read Dealbreaker and LOLFed.  And when I want to have my mind blown, I turn to Money is the Way (Michael Fowkes).  If you do not have the time or inclination to search all this great stuff out, then make your life easier:  Subscribe to Abnormal Returns&#8217; excellent email newsletter and you will get many of the most important links delivered to you daily.</p></blockquote>
<div>
<p><strong>&#8220;So you already know I loved your &#8216;Who&#8217;s Who?&#8217; section.  I think it&#8217;s very unique and I loved the creativity.  Now how did you go about building such an extensive list of influential bloggers out there?&#8221;</strong></div>
<blockquote><p>The list started out as a way for me to categorize the hundreds of great sites out there and then to expose my readers to them in a humorous way.  I plan to update it each year and it will be interesting to see how many finance blogs are no longer with us and how many new ones will have sprung up.  Almost everyone on that list has interested me or inspired me in one way or another.  I&#8217;m an unabashed fanboy.  If there were a finance blogger convention, I would be in costume.  LOL.</p></blockquote>
<div>
<p><strong>&#8220;Lastly, do you have any advice to the current investors out there?&#8221; </strong></div>
<blockquote><p>Well, I don&#8217;t give investment advice on the internet as I am an advisor to high net worth investors based on their individual needs, risk tolerance, objectives and goals.  You can&#8217;t take individualized, tailored information like that and dispense it to the world as though it is appropriate for everyone.  That said, I will offer these tidbits that I think are important and apropos for all investors right now:</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>1.  Understand the Great Debate of Our Time:  Nothing on earth matters more for investors than the Great Debate of Our Time, namely, whether or not we&#8217;re in for Deflation or Inflation over the next few years.  There are many terrific voices on either side of this debate, and I myself have not firmly taken a side yet.  That said, getting this one question right will be more important for your results and performance in the intermediate term than any other single thing you decide.  You absolutely must pay attention to the deflation/ inflation issue and understand it, especially as a pro, because being on the wrong side will mean career suicide.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>2.  Keep your enemies close:  By this I mean to always keep informed of what the other side thinks of a trade or investment.  No matter how bullish you may be on a sector or theme, you mustn&#8217;t tune out the bears just because they disagree.  Understanding both sides of the trade will keep you rigorous, and will instill a healthy amount of doubt so that you are not blinded to obvious clues that you could be wrong.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>3.  Vary your information sources:  It is not enough to read the C Section of the WSJ followed by an hour of CNBC&#8217;s Squawk Box to keep yourself up to speed.  If you do this, you will only be hearing a very small fraction of what matters.  Blogs are more timely and important than the mainstream media because they distill the best of the mainstream media and then elaborate on it or dissect it, giving you an even more useful look at the subject matter at hand.  Also, the blogging world features many great sources for technical and quantitative analysis rather than the fundamental analysis that dominates the mainstream (because it is story-driven).  The more perspective from different analytical disciplines you can absorb, the better.</p></blockquote>
<p>Thank you Josh for the in-depth insight on investing.  I hope you can take away something valuable from his interview and take your next step to financial success.
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		<title>Chris Nelder: An Autodidactic Energy Expert</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/chris-nelder/</link>
		<comments>http://www.behindthespread.com/chris-nelder/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:25:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long-Term]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Nelder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Nelder is your go-to guy when it comes to energy.  With almost a decade of extensive research under his belt, Chris&#8217; knowledge and passion in energy cannot be topped by many.  What&#8217;s really interesting about Chris though, is that he has quite an unique background.  Describing himself as an autodidactic polymath, he&#8217;s held a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris Nelder is your go-to guy when it comes to energy.  With almost a decade of extensive research under his belt, Chris&#8217; knowledge and passion in energy cannot be topped by many.  What&#8217;s really interesting about Chris though, is that he has quite an unique background.  Describing himself as an autodidactic polymath, he&#8217;s held a hundred different jobs in the past and is on his 5th career now.  With education in English, psychology, and computer science, he&#8217;s been involved as a technical writer, a software engineer, a book publisher, an entrepreneur, a blogger, and now an energy expert writing articles for <a target="_blank" href="http://www.energyandcapital.com" title="Energy And Capital" >Energy and Capital</a>. Now try topping that background!</p>
<p>Now not only does he have an unique background,  his credentials are notable: over 1400 followers on Twitter (<a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/nelderini" >@nelderini</a>), one of the <a target="_blank" href="http://stocktwits.com/recommended" >&#8220;top data junkies&#8221;</a> on NASDAQ/StockTwits, an editor at <a target="_blank" href="http://www.energyandcapital.com/" title="Energy and Capital" >Energy and Capital</a>, a blogger for almost a decade (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.getreallist.com/" >www.getreallist.com</a>), an author of the book (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0470127368?tag=getreallist-20&amp;camp=0&amp;creative=0&amp;linkCode=as1&amp;creativeASIN=0470127368&amp;adid=0NXCBDV25D8WP0MSWSEY&amp;" title="Profit from the Peak" >Profit from the Peak</a>), a guest speaker at various universities, and the list goes on.</p>
<p><img title="Chris Nelder" src="http://www.behindthespread.com/images/interview-chris-nelder2.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="146" /></p>
<p>I recently had a chance to chat with him over the phone.  Within an hour of our conversation, I could tell that he&#8217;s a really smart guy and is clearly passionate about energy.  So, without further ado, I present to you Chris Nelder.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;So Chris, you really have quite an unique background and a career history.  With an education in English/Psychology/Computer Science, you&#8217;ve worn many hats in the past: a technical writer, a software engineer, a publisher, an entrepreneur, and now a blogger/journalist and an energy analyst.  I looked up &#8216;How to become an energy analyst&#8217; on eHow, but it wasn&#8217;t quite the path you&#8217;ve taken.  Can you tell us a bit on your career path? Why the changes?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I call myself an autodidactic polymath because I do bounce around from one thing to another.   I’ve had 100 different jobs in the past and roughly on my 5<sup>th</sup> career now.  I’m very curious about the world, and I like to tackle good challenges that are interesting and in hot areas, which brought me to where I am today.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>I really began studying energy after 9/11 even though I’ve always been curious about it.  Even in my days as a software engineer, I had a subscription to Home Power magazine for years, which is a magazine that focuses on, not surprisingly, home power including solar systems, micro-hydro systems, wind systems, and even the macro industry topics.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>After 9/11, I started doing more research trying to find out as much as I could on who the Taliban are and why they attacked us, which led me to the topic of peak oil.  With the topic of peak oil triggering a bigger interest, I launched my study on energy, which is now going into the 8<sup>th</sup> year.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>As I dug deeper into this rat hole, probably around 5 years into it, I realized “You know, I know enough about this stuff now, I really ought to be trading energy.”  Then I happened to find a company that publishes investing newsletters and decided to start writing for them.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So you’ve pretty much built yourself a career by pursuing your interest and teaching yourself the topic of energy and becoming the expert.”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Right. By then I’d had hundreds of articles on my blog about energy and peak oil available to see if they would be interested in me and my writing.  And they were.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So is this your main job now? Writing for Energy and Capital?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Yea that’s pretty much my main gig now.  I do speaking engagements and various kinds of consulting on the side, but that’s my main thing right now.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“Have you thought about going into something else lately? Anything new and exciting coming up?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Yea I have thought about that.  The solar business is probably the first one I would go back to since it’s still very much right in the middle of what I’m interested in.  Now unfortunately, it’s kind of a difficult business, which is part of the reason why I left the industry.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The software engineering, I probably wouldn’t go back to.  I got tired of it.  I was in the software industry for 17 years and I’ve done everything you can do in software except marketing.  I was a tester, I was a technical writer, I was an engineer, I was a director of product development, I was a director of engineering, I started my own business…and by the time I got involved in energy and the solar business, I just wasn’t interested in it anymore.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;Of all of the hats you&#8217;ve worn before, which ones were most rewarding and fun? Would you say energy is one at the top?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>This is my favorite gig ever.  I have never enjoyed a career this much.  I’m absolutely on fire about it.  Every day, I can’t wait to get up and read more, write more and study more.  I’m absolutely, completely energized about the topic.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;I know investing is not your primary career, but I&#8217;m certain you engage in the market.  After all, you are one of the recommended twitters on StockTwits and a huge contributor to Energy and Capital.  What kind of investments do you make? Any particular sectors&#8230;like maybe energy? <img src='http://www.behindthespread.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />  &#8221;<br />
</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Commodities are my main domain, particularly energy.  For the most part, I don’t really pay attention to rest of the sectors unless they overlap with commodities.  For example, I had to learn more about finance in the past year due to the recent collapse of the financial world, which inevitably impacted the commodity prices significantly.  So I reach out to other domains to the extent that’s required for my field.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Now, I don’t pay any attention to the tech industry.  I don’t care about it and don’t want to care about it, except I continuously try to recruit my friends from the tech industry to the energy industry.  I was able to convert a few smart people to the clean tech industry, but the energy industry needs all the smart people we can get.  We don’t need any more people in tech.</p></blockquote>
<p>[Laughs]</p>
<p><strong>“So what are your primary positions now as far as investments?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I’m long natural gas and long agriculture but I currently do not have any position in oil.  I did recently publish my research and my stance on natural gas, so I think I was pretty clear as to why that would be a buy now.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“How do you go about making your trading decisions?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I tend to look at the fundamental side of trading.  I’m not the technical analysis type, but I do consult with the better traders on Stocktwits who do use TA for an insight.  I then use their input to confirm my stance from the fundamental standpoint.  So most of the time, I try to look carefully into the data instead of relying on pundits out there.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>As far as the trading style, I’m a swing trader even though I used to be more of a buy-and-hold trader before.  Now with this market falling apart, I do not feel safe being a buy-and-hold trader yet, so I try to be much more nimble about my trading now.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>“So you mentioned about exchanging thoughts with the traders on <a target="_blank" href="http://www.stocktwits.com" title="StockTwits" >StockTwits</a>.  Can you name some of the traders you follow on StockTwits?”</strong></p>
<blockquote><p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/traderalamo" >TraderAlamo</a> &#8211; My go-to guy for technical analysis.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/misstrade" >MissTrade</a> &#8211; He’s a very experienced guy and trust his judgments.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/tradefast" >TradeFast</a> – I haven’t seen him around too much recently but he’s one of the few I trust.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/stockjockey" >StockJockey</a> – I think he’s a super smart guy and I tweet with him a lot.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/upsidetrader" >UpsideTrader</a> – He’s also my go-to guy.  He’s a really generous guy with his time, responding to our tweets and a terrific trader.  I love Joe—I call him the Yogi Berra of StockTwits.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald" >GregorMacdonald</a> – I met Gregor on StockTwits and though we don’t discuss trading very much, I chat with him frequently about peak oil and macro themes. We’re usually on the same page.</p>
<p>I think they’re all really good guys and obviously know how to trade.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8221; Wall Street has been rather crazy this past year.  Do you have any advice you can give to investors who are getting into this game?&#8221;<br />
</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I think it’s important to follow the standard rules: don’t fly without a safety net (set your stops), choose your entry points carefully, don’t be a pig, and be nimble.  I don’t think I’ve held any stock more than a few months now because of this wacky market.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;Do you have any resources available to us that you use to help with your investment strategies and analysis?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I read the <a target="_blank" href="http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_docman&amp;task=cat_view&amp;gid=26&amp;Itemid=66" >Peak Oil News and Peak Oil Review</a> regularly (written by Tom Whipple for ASPO-USA), as well as <a target="_blank" href="http://www.theoildrum.com/" >TheOilDrum</a>, which offers a wealth of information and perspective on energy issues. Dave Cohen’s <a target="_blank" href="http://peakwatch.typepad.com/" >Peak Watch</a> blog is a weekly must-read for me. Another good weekly is Jim Hansen’s <a target="_blank" href="http://masterresourcereport.spaces.live.com/default.aspx" >Master Resource Report</a>. I also check my Twitter feed continuously nearly every day—it’s a terrific source of news and insight.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;You have been a blogger for quite some time (since &#8217;01).  What is it about blogging that keeps you going?  As a blogger myself, I&#8217;d love to get some insight&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>I would have to say that what keeps me going is passion. I feel that humanity is at a critical crossroads on several different fronts, particularly energy, and I want to influence our thoughts and actions in productive directions as much as I can. Most people know very little about energy or about how serious the coming challenges are, and I consider it a personal duty to share what I have learned and try to help get people up to speed on the subject. But the benefits of blogging extend far beyond that. Through my writing I have made connections with all sorts of smart and interesting people, which has accelerated my own learning and vastly improved my trading skills. Sometimes I have to force myself to keep going, as all writers do from time to time, but for the most part, it’s passion in the driver’s seat.</p></blockquote>
<p>Thank you Chris for your time and insight.  Now that I know where to find you, I&#8217;ll be sure to reach out whenever I have energy related questions.
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		<title>Corey Rosenbloom: Afraidtotrade.com Founder&#8217;s Advice</title>
		<link>http://www.behindthespread.com/corey-rosenbloom/</link>
		<comments>http://www.behindthespread.com/corey-rosenbloom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2009 15:03:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BTS</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Day Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Rosenbloom]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.behindthespread.com/?p=120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the next guest for our interview series, I was fortunate enough to interview Corey Rosenbloom from Afraid To Trade Twitter (Afraidtotrade).  He is a full-time trader and a blogger making a living utilizing his talent as an investor.   With nearly 3500 subscriber, he provides the readers with the edge in technical analysis to make [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the next guest for our interview series, I was fortunate enough to interview Corey Rosenbloom from Afraid To Trade Twitter (<a target="_blank" href="http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade" title="Afraid To Trade" >Afraidtotrade</a>).  He is a full-time trader and a blogger making a living utilizing his talent as an investor.   With nearly 3500 subscriber, he provides the readers with the edge in technical analysis to make the right trades.  I enjoy his talent to identify Elliot Waves and divergences to suggest a future trend.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.afraidtotrade.com" ><img title="Afraid To Trade" src="http://www.my10000dollars.com/investing site-afraidtotrade.jpg" alt="" width="399" height="293" /></a></p>
<p>With this interview, I intend to help you discover and learn more about Corey Rosenbloom, a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) trader, educator, analyst, and a blogger.  Enjoy.</p>
<p><strong>Thanks for your time participating in the Q&amp;A.  First thing I want to ask you is </strong><strong>&#8220;how in the world did you get into investing as a high school student? Most high school students are watching movies and playing World of Warcraft with friends nowadays&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Haha &#8211; it&#8217;s not like I sat there the whole time playing the stock market! I was a normal active high school student who happened to talk stocks from time to time with my father, who is an avid market enthusiast and investor. Our school took part in a stock market challenge where we teamed up and competed against other teams to pick the best stocks over a 6 or so month period and our team happened to win which got me thinking how fun this could be. Plus, that was around 1997/1998 when the market was rising so it was easy to pick winning stocks and feel good about it.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;How has your investing career been since? Success stories? Big mistake stories? Being an investor myself, I made some big ones myself&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Well, if you don&#8217;t make mistakes, you&#8217;re not really trading. With my enthusiasm, my dad started taking my input and we were analyzing stocks together mainly using news and fundamental analysis. We made money like everyone else until the market peak in 2000 where things started to turn sour. Keep in mind, back then, the prevailing mentality was &#8220;buy and hold&#8221; and of course we suffered like everyone else as the market fell and we kept holding &#8216;fundamentally attractive&#8217; stocks. That&#8217;s when I discovered Technical Analysis &#8211; even at simple levels &#8211; adds value to investment decisions. I then developed a hybrid investment style which selected fundamentally attractive stocks that were filtered through simple technical analysis scans&#8230; and I would continue to shift more towards the technicals as I learned and researched more.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>&#8220;I believe you&#8217;re a more aggressive trader using techniques like swing trading and momentum trading. Do you still believe these techniques are better than the traditional &#8216;buy-and-hold&#8217; strategies?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Depends &#8211; in May 2009, we were at levels not seen in 12 years in the stock market. That meant had I just put my money in the market and held it when I first started in 1998, I would be no better or worse (assuming I received no dividends) after 11 years of &#8216;buy and hold.&#8217; Losing 50% from 2000 to 2002 and then again losing 50% from 2007 &#8211; 2009 (both from peak to trough) is risky. However, most people don&#8217;t realize that the market rose 100% from 2003 to 2007 &#8211; it doubled. That shows that &#8211; while buy and hold might not be as &#8216;risky,&#8217; you could have performed much better by exiting the market in 2001 and buying back in mid-2003 then selling in early 2008 and perhaps buying back in early/mid 2009 &#8211; which could have been determined by the 20 month simple moving average on the monthly charts.<br />
Trading isn&#8217;t for everyone, but in my experience, you can profit much more by short term swing trading or even aggressive intraday trading if you have the skillset, strategies, knowledge, and mental stability to handle the risk and opportunities.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>A little bit about your blog..&#8221;are you currently investing and blogging full-time?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Yes, both, but I focus almost exclusively on the short term and intraday trading since being full-time in late 2006. I analyze multiple markets on multiple timeframes and often hold ETF positions, but I somehow even manage to morph those into short-term swing and scalp trades as well. I also highlight intraday opportunities and trade set-ups both through a subscription service and on the open blog &#8211; the blog mixes multiple timeframe technical analysis of all markets, major indexes, and stocks by request (though I focus less on stocks now and more on broader indexes).</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>If so, &#8220;what do you think led to your success as a full-time investor/blogger?&#8221; &#8220;What are some of the challenges you&#8217;ve faced along the way?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>That&#8217;s a big question &#8211; I initially started the blog as a way to reach out to people and share ideas as well as catalog my strategies and things I had learned. It was a way to connect with people with similar goals and experiences and combined trading psychology/emotion with market strategies and daily analysis showing how these strategies play out in real time &#8211; with a focus on education. I&#8217;m a natural analyst and teacher so I think people responded well to me sharing these concepts and breaking them down in simple terms using multiple examples. I&#8217;ve learned so much and solidified my knowledge by doing so. In the beginning, it was sometimes difficult to find things to talk about but as the traffic grew and people gave good feedback and asked for chart requests, the ideas flowed &#8211; now the challenge is not sharing too much!<br />
The blog has grown organically through the generous links of other bloggers, to which I&#8217;m all very thankful.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong> Lastly, &#8220;do you have any advice you can give to the investors, both new and experienced? Any must have tools that give you the edge?&#8221;</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Becoming a successful trader takes time, so it&#8217;s most important to protect your motivation, enthusiasm, love of the market, and psychological capital. You won&#8217;t learn all the lessons you need to and find the strategy and market that best fits your personality without some trial and error &#8211; and you need to stay motivated through the early years &#8211; don&#8217;t give up easily.<br />
Focus on concepts, not indicators. Realize it all comes down to supply and demand and that price &#8211; not your opinion or analysis &#8211; is key. It&#8217;s all about probabilities and risk/reward. Either increase your accuracy of your trading or more importantly increase your monetary edge, meaning make more statistically when you&#8217;re right than when you&#8217;re wrong &#8211; you can have a 50% accuracy rate and do quite well when your winners average around 2 or 3 times your losers. Oh, and try to have fun. Again, you have to love trading to withstand the drawdowns and frustration &#8211; it&#8217;s worth it if you stick with it.</p></blockquote>
<p>Well that&#8217;s all for now guys.  If you want to learn more about him, go to his site and get involved!
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